Has the Book Business Learned Anything From the Music Business?
It has been twenty years since David Kusek and Gerd Leonhard published their manifesto The Future Of Music: Manifesto for the Digital Music Revolution. I wrote about it in my April 2017 post called The best way how not to drown in the “music as water”. After the initial enthusiasm subsided, my thinking went the opposite direction. This is what I wrote further about the manifest – There they predicted “a future in which music will be like water: ubiquitous and free-flowing.” The idea sounded great. Why wouldn’t you or I, as a music listener and a music maker, want to get freed from the shortsighted business and copyright policies of the ‘big music business’ conglomerates and media?
Recently I was reading about the business of books publishing and realized an unfortunate amount of similarities between the development in the business of music and the business of publishing books.
Actually it was the newsletter by Ted Gioia, that made me aware of the article by Elle Griffin on her blog The Elysian. The article is titled No one buys books, and it sums up the very first similarity with music. Who buys music these days? Are you even aware of an actual music store in your area? In this ‘spotified’ world people buy an access to music streaming services, but they rarely buy music as in a form of an album, or a particular musician. And it looks, it is quite similar with books, that people tend to appreciate less and less.
The Streaming Revolution Arrives in Publishing
The parallels between music and books have become even more pronounced since 2024. Just as Spotify transformed music consumption, services like Kindle Unlimited have fundamentally altered how readers approach books. At $9.99 monthly, Kindle Unlimited offers unlimited access to over a million titles, mirroring the “all-you-can-consume” model that revolutionized music streaming.
The shift is unmistakable. While the publishing industry reported modest growth in 2024, unit sales continue to decline even as revenues hold steady through higher prices. This mirrors the music industry’s trajectory, where streaming numbers soar while individual album purchases plummet. Readers, like music listeners before them, are increasingly choosing access over ownership.
The Economics of Abundance
The publishing industry appears to be repeating music’s mistakes rather than learning from them. The promise of digital abundance that Kusek and Leonhard described for music has arrived in publishing, but with similar consequences. Authors, like musicians before them, find themselves competing not just within their genre, but against the entire universe of available content.
Consider the numbers: over 500,000 self-published books appeared in 2023 alone, creating an oversupply that makes discovery nearly impossible for individual authors. This flood of content mirrors the democratization of music production that filled streaming platforms with millions of tracks, most destined for obscurity.
The subscription model creates a peculiar economic dynamic. Publishers and authors receive fractions of pennies per page read through Kindle Unlimited, similar to the minuscule per-stream payments that have made it nearly impossible for musicians to earn a living from recorded music alone. The economics favor platform owners and the most popular content creators, while the long tail of creators struggles for sustainability.
The Creator’s Dilemma
Perhaps the most troubling parallel is how both industries have shifted value away from creators toward platforms and distributors. Musicians learned too late that streaming platforms captured most of the value while artists scrambled for touring revenue and merchandise sales. Book authors now face a similar challenge: how do you monetize creativity when your product competes against infinite alternatives at essentially zero marginal cost?
The book industry has witnessed the rise of author-entrepreneurs who, like musicians, must become their own marketing departments, building direct relationships with readers through newsletters, social media, and personal brands. The romantic notion of the writer focused solely on craft has given way to the reality of creator-as-businessman, just as it did for musicians.
What Books Could Learn From Music’s Hard Lessons
The music industry’s experience offers several cautionary lessons for publishing. First, the race to the bottom on pricing is nearly irreversible once it begins. Music’s journey from $15 albums to $0.003 per stream happened gradually, then suddenly. Book publishers still have time to establish sustainable pricing models that value creative work appropriately.
Second, the importance of direct creator-to-audience relationships cannot be overstated. Musicians who thrived in the streaming era built loyal fan bases willing to pay premium prices for concerts, limited editions, and exclusive content. Authors who succeed in the subscription era will likely be those who create communities around their work rather than just transactions.
Third, platform dependence is dangerous. Musicians who relied entirely on streaming platforms found themselves at the mercy of algorithmic changes and policy shifts. Authors increasingly dependent on Amazon’s ecosystem face similar risks.
The Unanswered Questions
The fundamental question remains whether creative industries can maintain quality and diversity when content is perceived as essentially free. Music streaming has democratized access but also homogenized taste, as algorithmic curation tends toward the commercially safe. Will book subscription services similarly flatten literary culture?
The music industry adapted by finding new revenue streams: live performances, branded partnerships, and direct fan funding. Books, being consumed privately and individually, face different challenges in replacing traditional sales revenue. Some authors experiment with Patreon subscriptions, exclusive content, and virtual events, but these models work primarily for established creators with existing audiences.
The Water is Rising
Kusek and Leonhard’s prediction about music becoming “like water” proved prophetic, though perhaps not in the way they intended. Water is essential, but it’s also commoditized and undervalued. The book industry stands at a similar crossroads, watching as subscription services transform reading from a transaction into an utility.
The question isn’t whether books will follow music’s path—the streaming model is already here. The question is whether publishers, authors, and readers will learn from music’s mistakes or repeat them. So far, the evidence suggests we’re choosing repetition over innovation, following the same path toward a creative economy that struggles to sustain its creators.
Perhaps the most important lesson from music’s digital transformation is this: technological inevitability doesn’t excuse economic negligence. The book business still has time to build a more sustainable future, but only if it chooses to learn from music’s hard-won wisdom rather than stumble through the same mistakes.
The water is rising. The question is whether we’ll learn to swim or simply try not to drown.
Photo: Yale Alumni
